With the formal inclusion of agricultural waste utilization into the CCER methodology system, which sub-sector projects are expected to seize opportunities in the carbon market and successfully enter

Since the restart of the National Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) trading market in 2023, the methodology has entered a "normalized update cycle". Currently, CCER methodology covers six major fields including energy, construction, agriculture, ecology, and electricity, supporting project types from the initial "original green" fields such as mangrove forests and offshore wind power to gradually expand to the transition fields of "high carbon to low-carbon" such as building energy conservation and Agricultural Waste treatment. The coverage and application scenarios of the carbon market continue to expand.
1、 Core Analysis of CCER Methodology for the Fifth Batch of "Agricultural Waste Utilization"
On October 13, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the fifth batch of CCER methodology draft for soliciting opinions, including the "Methodology for Agricultural Waste Centralized Treatment Project of Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Emission Reduction Project (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Methodology") and the supporting "Compilation Instructions". The three core access conditions must strictly meet the following requirements: 1. Clarify the scope of treatment: The project needs to centrally treat agricultural waste through facilities such as anaerobic digestion reactors, and the treatment objects are limited to one or more mixtures of livestock and poultry manure such as pigs, chickens, and cows, crop straw, and tail vegetables.
2. Requirements for standardized technical routes: Anaerobic digestion reactors must be used to treat agricultural waste, and the generated biogas, sludge, and slurry must be fully recycled and reused. Among them, biogas needs to be used in one of the following three ways: ① for power generation after desulfurization (either grid connected or direct supply); ② Direct supply for use; ③ Production of bio natural gas (grid connected or directly supplied); After storage or further processing, the sludge and slurry need to be used for agricultural purposes.
3. Strict data monitoring standards: The accounting of emission reductions relies on precise data support, so the Methodology puts forward extremely high requirements for monitoring basic data and key parameters. It should be noted that emission reductions only occur after the completion and trial operation of data networking. If there are problems with data monitoring or networking that cause delays in progress, it will directly affect the realization of project benefits.

According to the "Compilation Explanation", the carbon market potential is estimated to be approximately 4.5 million tons of carbon dioxide annually from the currently completed agricultural waste centralized treatment projects; It is expected that by 2030, the annual emission reduction in this field can increase to about 6 million tons of carbon dioxide. Conservatively estimated at a carbon price of 100 yuan/ton, the projects covered by this batch of methodology alone can generate a market size of 45-60 million yuan per year; If the fourth batch of methodologies is combined with the "Methodology for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Projects - Large scale Pig Farm Fecal Biogas Recycling and Utilization Project (Draft for Comments)", the relevant market size will be further expanded to 60-120 million yuan per year, with considerable market potential.
2、 The next batch of projects with the potential to 'get on board'
（1） From a policy logic perspective, the treatment of livestock and poultry manure is one of the core areas for agricultural Carbon Reduction, driven by both policy and practical needs. The fourth batch of CCER methodology has been included in the "Large scale Pig Farm Manure Biogas Recycling and Utilization" (Anaerobic Technology Route), forming a closed loop of carbon reduction path for "anaerobic treatment" of agricultural waste. Aerobic fermentation, as another mainstream technology for livestock and poultry manure treatment (especially suitable for solid manure and low-temperature area manure treatment), will become an inevitable choice to improve the agricultural CCER methodology system as the national requirements for "full technology coverage" and "full scene adaptation" of agricultural carbon reduction increase.
From the perspective of practical needs, in the low temperature environment of winter in northern China, the efficiency of anaerobic digestion systems significantly decreases (methane yield can be reduced by 30% -50%), while aerobic fermentation technologies (such as stack fermentation and trough fermentation) are less affected by temperature and are more suitable for the climate conditions in breeding concentrated areas such as North China and Northeast China. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the proportion of aerobic fermentation treatment projects for livestock and poultry manure in China has reached 38% in 2024, with an annual processing capacity of over 120 million tons of manure. If included in CCER, it can cover a potential emission reduction of about 2 million tons per year, further releasing the value of agricultural carbon assets. （2） Potential inclusion path: Focusing on the dual core of "emission reduction+resource recycling", if the aerobic fermentation technology for livestock and poultry manure is included in CCER, it is likely to refer to the framework of existing anaerobic treatment methods and design differentiated standards based on the characteristics of aerobic processes
1. Clarify the technical core of the entry threshold: Projects may be required to adopt a complete route of "aerobic fermentation+product resource utilization" - producing organic fertilizer from manure after aerobic fermentation, and the organic fertilizer must meet the standards of "Organic Fertilizer" (GB/T19524.1-2021) to avoid formal projects that only treat but not utilize; At the same time, limit the processing scale (such as a single site with an annual processing capacity of ≥ 5000 tons of manure) to ensure the stability of the project's emission reduction benefits.
2. Emission reduction accounting focuses on "dual emission reduction": Unlike anaerobic technology that focuses on "methane recovery", the emission reduction core of aerobic fermentation lies in two aspects: first, reducing methane emissions during the natural stacking process of manure through high-temperature aerobic degradation (55-65 ℃) (methane emissions under aerobic conditions are only 10% -15% of anaerobic stacking); The second is to replace the use of chemical fertilizers (organic fertilizers have a nutrient utilization rate of over 60%) and reduce carbon emissions during fertilizer production (approximately 0.8-1.2 tons of CO ₂ are emitted per ton of fertilizer production). Future methodologies may establish a dual accounting dimension of "methane emission reduction+fertilizer substitution emission reduction" to more comprehensively reflect the carbon value of technology.
3. Monitoring requirements highlight "full process data": Considering that parameters such as temperature, oxygen concentration, and moisture content in the aerobic fermentation process directly affect degradation efficiency, the methodology may require the installation of real-time monitoring equipment in the project, such as stack temperature sensors, oxygen content detectors, and organic fertilizer production measurement devices, and networking with local ecological and environmental departments' data platforms to ensure the compliance of the fermentation process and the authenticity of emission reductions.

（3） Challenge to be overcome: The core obstacle to incorporating aerobic fermentation into CCER lies in the scientific definition of baseline scenarios and technical standardization. If "natural accumulation of manure" is taken as the baseline, although it can reflect the emission reduction benefits of aerobic treatment, some regions have already introduced mandatory policies for manure treatment (such as "the harmless treatment rate of manure outside the prohibited breeding area needs to reach 90%"), which may cause controversy over "additionality"; If "traditional composting (non standardized aerobic)" is used as the baseline, it is necessary to clearly distinguish the emission reduction differences between "standardized aerobic fermentation" and "traditional composting" (such as the standardized process methane emission reduction rate being 20% -30% higher than traditional composting), which requires more field trial data support.
In addition, the insufficient standardization of aerobic fermentation technology may also affect its inclusion process - there are various processes in the current market, such as stack, trough, and box, and the emission reduction efficiency of different processes varies greatly (such as the methane emission reduction rate of trough fermentation being 15% -20% higher than that of stack fermentation). At present, only the industry standard "Technical Specification for Film covered Aerobic Fermentation of Livestock and Poultry Manure" has been released in terms of technical standards. In the future, it is necessary to unify technical parameters and emission reduction factors to lay the foundation for the development of CCER methodology. （4） Market impact: Northern breeding areas and organic fertilizer enterprises will be the biggest beneficiaries. If aerobic fermentation technology is included in CCER, northern breeding concentration areas such as North China and Northeast China will usher in opportunities - these areas are previously difficult to carry out anaerobic projects due to low temperature restrictions. The inclusion of aerobic fermentation technology can activate the carbon asset value of local livestock and poultry manure. It is expected that the annual emission reduction of a single plant can reach 5000-10000 tons of CO ₂. Calculated at a carbon price of 100 yuan/ton, the annual income of a single project can reach 500000-1 million yuan.
At the same time, organic fertilizer production enterprises will also gain new profit growth points. The current organic fertilizer market is facing the problem of "high cost and difficult premium". If carbon benefits are added, the price of organic fertilizer can be reduced by 10% -15% (such as a carbon benefit of about 50-80 yuan per ton of organic fertilizer), further enhancing the market competitiveness of organic fertilizer, promoting the implementation of the "fertilizer reduction and substitution" policy, and forming a virtuous cycle of "carbon reduction resource cycle agricultural green development".
3、 Future prospects
From the perspective of market trends, agricultural recycling has become a new growth track in the carbon trading market. This development direction not only aligns with the policy orientation of rural revitalization and ecological governance in China, but also highly matches the mainstream trend of natural solutions accounting for over 60% of the global voluntary carbon market (VCM), laying a solid foundation for international mutual recognition of carbon credits in the future. In this industrial transformation, regions with outstanding resource endowments will benefit first.
Local governments need to reasonably plan the utilization mode of agricultural and animal husbandry waste, which can not only obtain direct economic benefits through carbon credit trading, but also accumulate high-quality carbon assets, providing dual support for regional green development. From a policy perspective, the national carbon emission reduction management is undergoing a deep transformation towards scientific, standardized, and diversified directions. The continuous expansion of CCER project types is promoting the formation of a multi-level voluntary emission reduction market system covering multiple fields such as agriculture, ecology, technology, and finance. In the future, sub projects related to agricultural recycling are expected to continue to be a key direction for the expansion of CCER methodology.