Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal | Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Livestock and Poultry Manure in China

The annual output of livestock and poultry pollution in China is nearly 4 billion tons, and its effective governance is a key link in promoting the green transformation of animal husbandry and the construction of national "waste free cities".
In response to the shortcomings of current research in accurately quantifying the national production and spatiotemporal distribution pattern of livestock and poultry manure, this study constructs a unified accounting system for livestock and poultry pollution, integrates multi-source breeding data and multiplicative prediction models, quantifies the total amount of livestock and poultry pollution in China, systematically analyzes its spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics, and predicts the evolution trend in the next 10 years.
The results show that
In 2023, the total amount of livestock and poultry pollution in China will reach 3.64 billion tons (65.4% of manure production and 34.6% of urine production), showing significant dual characteristics of species dominance and spatial agglomeration.
In terms of species contribution, cows and pigs are absolutely dominant, accounting for 39% and 36.7% respectively; Cattle dominate the discharge of manure (contribution rate>40%), while pigs dominate the production of urine (contribution rate>55%), reflecting the biological differentiation between grass fed animal breeds and intensive farming.

In terms of spatial distribution, the Southwest, North China, and Northwest regions form a high load continuous belt (accounting for 50.8% of China's total domestic pollution), among which cattle and sheep in Inner Mongolia, pigs in Sichuan, other large livestock in Xinjiang, and poultry in Henan are the core contributing sources.

The pollution prediction results show that the total production of livestock and poultry in China will increase to 4.6 billion tons by 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%. The future increase will mainly come from cow manure (an increase of 41.1% compared to 2023) and poultry manure (an increase of 42.4% compared to 2023); On the contrary, the production of manure from other large livestock will significantly decrease (by 38.1% compared to 2023), reflecting the substitution effect of agricultural mechanization on traditional working livestock.
It is suggested that in the future, the treatment of livestock and poultry pollution in China should focus on the two dominant species of cattle and pigs, while also paying attention to the rapid growth of pollution from ruminants and poultry;
In terms of space, it is necessary to focus on anchoring the three major hotspots of Southwest, North China, and Northwest. The research results can provide important support for regional differentiated governance policies centered on regional joint prevention and control, optimization of breeding modes, etc.