Research on the Current Situation, Trend and Countermeasures of Agricultural Development in China

In 2025, China's agricultural economy will remain stable and improve, with increased grain production, accelerated industrial integration, upgraded business entities, and fruitful development achievements. In 2026, agricultural development will face challenges from complex environments and resource bottlenecks, and will also receive policy and technological dividends. This article analyzes the trend of agricultural conditions and proposes countermeasures around food security, technological empowerment, and industrial upgrading, providing ideas for the high-quality development of agriculture and the construction of an agricultural powerhouse.
The Development Situation of Agriculture in China in 2025
With the continuous support of policies and effective empowerment of technology, China's agricultural economy will show a stable and positive trend in 2025, not only achieving increased grain production and abundant harvest, but also ensuring sufficient supply of "vegetable basket" products, laying a solid foundation for economic and social development. The agricultural economic situation is stable and improving. The integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries is accelerating. By 2025, the added value of the primary industry will reach 9334.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9% over the previous year, showing a stable and positive trend. The scale of agricultural investment continued to expand, and the investment in the primary industry increased by 2.3% throughout the year, significantly higher than the average growth rate of fixed assets investment nationwide. The operation of agricultural product processing industry is stable, and the added value of agricultural and sideline food processing industry above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year. The retail sales of grain, oil, and food products by units above the annual quota increased by 9.3%, which is 5.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods in society. E-commerce and agriculture are deeply integrated, and county and rural logistics distribution outlets are becoming increasingly perfect. The coverage rate of express delivery services in administrative villages across the country has reached 95%. Rural e-commerce entrepreneurship remains active, with over 19.5 million rural online merchants nationwide. The integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism continues to promote the development of rural industries. In 2025, the No. 1 central document of the Central Committee clearly proposed "promoting the deep integration of rural culture and tourism", and all regions actively explored the integration mode of agriculture, culture and tourism. "Village super", "village run", "village song" and other "village name" activities flourished. A number of demonstration cases continue to emerge, such as Anji in Zhejiang Province relying on bamboo forest ecology to develop a "beautiful economy", and Shenbei New District in Shenyang breaking through the boundaries of agriculture, tourism, and processing industries by creating a "rice dream space", effectively driving the development of diversified rural tourism formats and promoting the deep integration of rural primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. By 2025, China will continue to optimize and improve its policy system to support grain production, steadily implement the minimum purchase price and grain subsidy policies, and further expand the coverage of full cost insurance and planting income insurance for major grain varieties. At the same time, the inter provincial horizontal interest compensation mechanism for grain production and sales areas under the overall planning of the central government has been officially launched and implemented, effectively mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain and local governments to grasp grain. Various regions are also strengthening the protection and quality improvement of arable land, orderly promoting the rectification of "non grain" arable land and the reclamation and utilization of abandoned land, and promoting a steady increase in the national autumn grain planting area. Overall, by 2025, China's agriculture has overcome the impact of natural disasters such as drought and floods, and achieved increased grain production and bumper harvests throughout the year. The total grain output in China reached 1429.75 billion catties, an increase of 16.75 billion catties or 1.2% compared to the previous year, and has remained stable at over 1.4 trillion catties for two consecutive years. The per acre yield of grain has reached 399.1 kilograms, an increase of 4.4 kilograms or 1.1% compared to 2024, laying a solid foundation for accelerating the modernization of agriculture and rural areas and promoting the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas. The supply of key "vegetable basket" products is sufficient, and the prices of agricultural products are generally stable. By 2025, China's animal husbandry industry will maintain stable growth. The annual production of pigs, cows, sheep, and poultry meat reached 100.72 million tons, an increase of 4.2% over the previous year, surpassing 100 million tons for the first time, and the ability to ensure the supply of livestock products continues to strengthen. Due to multiple factors such as weak market demand, high breeding costs, and industry capacity adjustments, the growth of milk and poultry egg production has slowed down. Milk production reached 40.91 million tons, an increase of 0.3%; The production of poultry eggs was 34.98 million tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The overall supply of vegetables and fruits is abundant, with a wide variety of varieties. In terms of prices, the overall producer price level of agricultural products in China will decrease by 3.7% compared to the previous year in 2025. By variety, rice prices slightly increased by 0.1%, while wheat, corn, and soybean prices decreased by 1.9%, 3.8%, and 3.6%, respectively. Vegetable prices decreased by 2.9%, while fruit prices increased by 0.6%. The price of live pigs decreased by 11.2%, the price of live cattle increased by 2.8%, the price of live sheep slightly decreased by 0.8%, and the price of live poultry decreased by 4.0%. The quality and safety level of agricultural products has been further improved. By 2025, the pass rate of routine monitoring of national agricultural product quality and safety will be 98%, effectively ensuring the safety of the people's tongues. By 2025, the scale of agricultural product trade in China will continue to decline, and the trade deficit will continue to narrow. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total import and export volume of agricultural products for the year was 311.57 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. Among them, the export value was 104.16 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; The import volume was 207.41 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; The trade deficit was 103.25 billion US dollars, narrowing by 8% compared to 2024. From the perspective of major export products, the export volume of aquatic products reached 4.492 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Driven by factors such as abundant domestic supply, strong international demand, and improved product competitiveness, grain exports have significantly increased, with a cumulative export of 3.289 million tons for the year, a significant increase of 45.5% year-on-year. In terms of imports, due to sufficient domestic production capacity, international costs, and supply chain fluctuations, the import of livestock products has significantly decreased. The annual import volume of meat (including offal) was 6.087 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. Thanks to the increasing demand for tropical fruits and high-end nuts, as well as improved trade and logistics conditions, imports of dried and fresh fruits and nuts have significantly increased, with a cumulative import of 9.082 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. Grain imports have decreased slightly, with an annual import volume of 140.563 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. The continuous rise of new agricultural management entities has achieved significant results in the construction of agricultural product brands. With the continuous promotion of agricultural management model innovation in various regions, new agricultural management entities represented by farmer cooperatives and family farms have made significant breakthroughs in technology application and service capabilities. The development of agricultural socialized service system has promoted the intensive operation and comprehensive services of agricultural production, effectively reduced the production costs of small farmers, and promoted the organic connection between small farmers and modern agriculture. At present, there are 1.111 million business entities providing agricultural socialized services nationwide, covering nearly 93 million small farmers. The influence of agricultural product brands continues to increase, and a number of high-quality agricultural product brands continue to develop and grow. The total number of green, organic, famous, excellent, new and geographical indication agricultural products in China has reached 86000, and the scale of "three products and one standard" agricultural products has significantly increased. To promote brand building in the system, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued the "Agricultural Brand Boutique Cultivation Plan (2022-2025)", aiming to cultivate a group of agricultural boutique brands with industrial advantages, market potential, and cultural heritage. In 2025, a new batch of 94 regional public brands will be included in the cultivation plan. As of now, the total number of brands selected for the plan has reached 320.
Environment and Prospects for Agricultural Development in China in 2026
In 2026, facing the complex international environment, China's agriculture will achieve new breakthroughs in scientific and technological innovation under the promotion of policy efficiency improvement and investment pattern optimization. The agricultural industry structure that adapts to new technologies and demands will continue to be optimized, further promoting the transformation of the industry towards high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated development, thus taking greater steps towards high-quality development. Analysis of Agricultural Development Environment in 2026 1. The international and domestic environment is becoming more complex, and the reconstruction of agricultural product supply chains is accelerating
From an international perspective, the world's century long changes are accelerating, the confrontational nature of major power games is increasing, geopolitical conflicts are prone to occur frequently, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, hegemonism and power politics threats are increasing, the international economic and trade order is facing severe challenges, and the growth momentum of the world economy is insufficient. These factors have a profound impact on both the supply and demand sides of agricultural products. The trend of regionalization of the global supply chain is obvious. The proportion of agricultural products trade between China and the countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" has gradually increased. A more balanced and resilient new global agricultural products trade system is taking shape. International cooperation in agricultural science and technology presents a situation of both limitations and breakthroughs. Developed countries are strengthening their technological blockade in areas such as gene editing and intelligent agricultural machinery, while China's cooperation with Southeast Asian and African countries in hybrid rice, water-saving irrigation, and other technological fields is continuously deepening, creating space for technology output and production capacity cooperation. From a domestic perspective, the supply and demand relationship of agricultural products is facing dual challenges of both quantity and structure. On the one hand, the production of important agricultural products such as grain in China has been increasing year by year, but the historical tight balance of total output and structural contradictions are still prominent. Some agricultural products are temporarily oversupplied, and at the same time, there is still a significant shortage of feed raw materials and other categories, relying heavily on imports. On the other hand, the consumption of urban and rural residents presents a trend of personalization, differentiation, and healthiness, which puts forward higher requirements for the variety structure, quality, and brand of agricultural products.
2. Policy and technological dividends continue to be released, providing solid support for agricultural development
From both international and domestic perspectives, the internal and external environment for agricultural development is undergoing profound changes. In this context, in 2026, China will intensify the implementation of a new round of action to increase grain production capacity by billions of kilograms, and continue to increase efforts to protect arable land and improve its quality. According to the Implementation Plan for Gradually Building Permanent Basic Farmland into High Standard Farmland issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council in 2025, China will strive to build a total of 1.35 billion mu of high standard farmland by 2030. As the starting year of the 15th Five Year Plan, the construction of high standard farmland in 2026 will be further solidly promoted. In 2025, the No. 1 central document of the Central Government proposed for the first time to "develop new agricultural productivity according to local conditions", and the fourth national agricultural census to be carried out in 2026 will also take "new agricultural productivity" as a separate statistical content for the first time. In recent years, new technologies such as biological breeding, drone crop protection, and intelligent irrigation have accelerated their implementation, and automation, mechanization, and intelligent farming and harvesting have become increasingly popular. Artificial intelligence, low altitude economy, and other fields have shown broad prospects in agriculture and rural areas. Technological progress has significantly improved agricultural production efficiency, promoting the transformation of farmland into "smart factories" and farmers into "technical experts", injecting new momentum into agricultural modernization. In 2026, agricultural technology represented by biotechnology and information technology is expected to make further breakthroughs, and interdisciplinary integration will continue to deepen, thereby continuously strengthening the new quality productivity of agriculture and shaping new driving forces and advantages for agricultural development.
3. The bottleneck constraints of resource factors are gradually becoming prominent, and the development momentum urgently needs to be accelerated and transformed
From the perspective of resources and environment, the situation of farmland protection in China is still severe, with a relatively high proportion of low yield farmland. The thickness of the black soil layer in Northeast China has significantly decreased compared to the early stage of cultivation, and the task of controlling groundwater funnels and heavy metal polluted farmland in the north is arduous. The impact of climate change on agriculture will further increase, and extreme weather events may continue to occur frequently and strongly in 2026, increasing the production risks of the three major staple foods. The pressure of agricultural green transformation is gradually becoming prominent. Although the use of fertilizers and pesticides has been negative for many years, there is still significant room for improvement in the comprehensive utilization rate of livestock and poultry manure and the recovery rate of agricultural film. Green production technologies still face problems such as high promotion costs and slow effectiveness. From the perspective of factors, the aging problem of rural labor force is prominent. According to the seventh national census data, the population aged 60 and above in rural areas is 121.36 million, accounting for 23.81% of the rural population. The shortage of high-quality and young agricultural labor force has led to an increase in the rate of abandoned farmland in some areas. The problem of difficult and expensive agricultural financing still exists, and there are still shortcomings in agricultural infrastructure. The mechanization rate in hilly and mountainous areas needs to be further improved. The proportion of rural logistics costs to the selling price of agricultural products is relatively high, which seriously restricts the value-added of the agricultural industry chain. Outlook for Agricultural Development in 2026: In 2026, the new quality productivity of agriculture will achieve steady development. The revitalization of the seed industry will achieve phased results, and key core technologies in fields such as gene editing and molecular breeding are expected to further break through. A batch of high-yield, high-quality, and stress resistant varieties will be promoted on a large scale, further consolidating the variety foundation of "storing grain in technology". The development of smart agriculture will usher in an explosive period, and the application of artificial intelligence in fields such as disease and pest identification and yield prediction will become more mature. The application rate of low altitude technology in scenarios such as farmland mapping and precision fertilization will continue to increase, and data elements will be deeply integrated with agricultural production, promoting a significant improvement in agricultural production efficiency. It is expected that the grain yield level will further increase in 2026, and is expected to exceed the 400 kg/mu mark. With the implementation of a new round of action to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion catties, grain output will remain stable at over 1.4 trillion catties, and is expected to reach around 1.43 trillion catties. The diversified food supply system will be more perfect, and meat production will generally show a stable and increasing trend. Vegetable, fruit, and aquatic product production will continue to grow, and the agricultural industry will further upgrade towards high quality, high added value, and green direction.

policy recommendations
2026 is the starting year of the 15th Five Year Plan, and it is crucial to do a good job in the work related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. We need to closely adhere to the goal of building a strong agricultural country, take problems as the guide, reform and innovation as the driving force, strengthen policy coordination, break through development bottlenecks and constraints, and enhance the comprehensive production capacity and quality efficiency of agriculture. Strengthen the food security guarantee system, establish a stable production and supply bottom line, and strictly implement farmland protection and quality improvement. Implement the Implementation Plan for Gradually Building Permanent Basic Farmland into High Standard Farmland, with a focus on promoting the construction of high standard farmland in the black soil areas and major grain producing areas of Northeast China. To cope with the challenges of the transition from occasional extreme weather such as continuous rainy weather to normalization during the "Three Autumn" period, the construction of high standard farmland needs to be carried out around the long-term adaptation needs of rainy environments, ensuring that every fertile field has the core ability to drain floods and irrigate droughts. Overall planning and synchronized implementation of efficient water-saving irrigation. Strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of farmland quality, promote technologies such as replacing chemical fertilizers with Organic Fertilizers and returning straw to the field. Expand the coverage of agricultural insurance, innovate and expand local characteristic agricultural product insurance, price index insurance, meteorological index insurance, "insurance+futures" and other insurance products, and explore the application of satellite remote sensing loss assessment technology. Enhance disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, and establish a modern agricultural meteorological monitoring and early warning system. Build a "production storage sales" reduction system, promote low-temperature grain storage technology, establish agricultural product production markets, and improve cold chain logistics. Deepen agricultural technological innovation, cultivate new quality productivity in agriculture, establish a stable growth mechanism for fiscal investment in agricultural technology, and guide social capital to invest in agricultural technology. Breakthrough the bottleneck of key core technologies, deeply implement the action of revitalizing the seed industry, focus on supporting the research and development of technologies such as gene editing and molecular breeding, promote the research and application of high-end intelligent and suitable agricultural machinery and equipment in hilly and mountainous areas, and promote the integration and efficiency improvement of good fields, varieties, opportunities, and methods. Optimize the process of experimentation demonstration promotion, adopting a "mature batch, promote one area" approach, gradually covering areas with high risk of rainfall with stress resistant varieties, and enhancing the ability of crops to cope with rain conditions. Accelerate the research and development of smart agriculture technology, continuously develop agricultural basic model algorithms, promote digital planting technology solutions, break down information barriers in meteorological, agricultural, water conservancy and other departments, and build a smart agriculture platform covering provinces, cities, counties and townships. Strengthen the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, establish a mechanism for the transformation of agricultural scientific and technological achievements, cultivate socialized service organizations for agricultural science and technology, and carry out full cycle technical services. Implement the Farmer Skills Enhancement Project, with a focus on improving the digital and intelligent operational skills of new professional farmers. Promote the upgrading of the industrial system and enhance the competitiveness of the entire chain, focus on food security and value-added efficiency, strengthen the agricultural product processing industry, promote the increase in the proportion of deep processing of staple foods such as wheat, rice, and corn, and develop high value-added products such as functional foods and leisure foods. Support the intelligent upgrade of processing equipment, promote IoT sorting systems, AI quality inspection equipment, and low-carbon energy-saving processing production lines, and improve the comprehensive utilization rate of by-products in agricultural product processing. Develop characteristic planting and breeding industries, focus on cultivating organic vegetables, ecological livestock and poultry and other characteristic categories, and strive to create agricultural product brands with geographical indications. Establish a full traceability system from the field to the dining table, strengthen quality control, and enhance the market competitiveness of characteristic agricultural products. Cultivate new industries and formats in rural areas, take the deep integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism as the starting point, create rural tourism projects such as rural complexes and homestay clusters, and develop immersive farming experiences, seasonal agricultural research and learning products. Expand the scale of rural e-commerce, support new models such as live streaming sales and community group buying, improve the three-level logistics distribution network in counties and villages, and promote steady growth in rural e-commerce transaction volume. Improve the circulation system of agricultural products, accelerate the layout of regional large-scale cold chain logistics parks, rely on digital platforms to achieve real-time sharing of cold chain logistics information, and reduce the loss rate of fresh agricultural product circulation. Deepening rural reform to stimulate the endogenous driving force of agricultural development, establishing and improving a unified construction land market between urban and rural areas, comprehensively carrying out the pilot program of extending the second round of land contracting for another 30 years after its expiration, improving the market for land management rights transfer, and exploring the implementation form of the separation of the "three rights" of homestead land. Improve the rural financial system, innovate rural financial products and services, guide social capital to invest in rural areas, and increase funding for rural infrastructure construction, industrial development, and public services. Accelerate the urbanization process of agricultural transfer population, strengthen the construction of rural talent team, and cultivate a group of rural talent team who understand technology, know how to operate, and are good at management. Establish an integrated planning and construction mechanism for urban and rural infrastructure, coordinate the planning and construction of urban and rural roads, water supply, power supply, flood control, garbage and sewage infrastructure, focus on promoting the integrated planning and design of urban and rural road networks, and establish an integrated management and protection mechanism for urban and rural infrastructure.