Organic fertilizer will divide half of the world among chemical fertilizers!?

For a long time in the past, the relationship between Organic Fertilizer and chemical fertilizer has been fluctuating. As the amount of chemical fertilizer used increases, the amount of organic fertilizer used will decrease. Since the 1980s, the crowding out effect of fertilizers on organic fertilizers has lasted for 30 years. But in the past two years, against the backdrop of the zero growth action of fertilizers and soil protection, the unilateral breakthrough momentum of the fertilizer industry has abruptly come to an end. Not long ago, at the International Petroleum and Chemical Conference held in Shanghai, He Caiwen, Deputy Director of the Planting Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, revealed that achieving zero growth in fertilizers is almost certain, and the future goal is to achieve negative growth. On the contrary, professionals in the organic fertilizer industry are greatly encouraged. At the organic-inorganic fertilizer industry docking conference held by the Organic Fertilizer Branch of the China Agricultural Supplies Circulation Association in Qinhuangdao, some experts called for equal distribution of organic fertilizers and chemical fertilizers.
At present, organic fertilizer accounts for about 20% of the total agricultural fertilizer input. If it is increased to 50%, this will be a significant figure. Experts have estimated that according to this goal, the annual output value of the organic fertilizer industry will reach 360 billion yuan. In today's unprecedentedly sluggish fertilizer industry, this cannot be said to be a tempting big cake. Perhaps, in the coming decades, it will become a new growth pole for the fertilizer industry.

The effectiveness of fertilizers has decreased by half in 30 years
Organic fertilizer is actually a type of fertilizer that is both traditional and modern. For thousands of years, agricultural civilization has relied mainly on organic fertilizers such as farmyard manure. In the 1980s, organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer each accounted for about 50% in China, but the chemical fertilizer industry has experienced rapid development in the following 30 years, and has now occupied 80% of the fertilizer market share, which can be described as astonishing speed.
Fertilizer has played an indispensable role in feeding the rapidly expanding population, but the drawbacks of fertilizer monopoly are becoming increasingly apparent. This is due to both the influence of market mechanisms and the pressure of agricultural planting.
The first and foremost issue is the continuous decline in farmland quality caused by high-intensity predatory planting, and chemical fertilizers have no effective way to improve farmland quality. Unreasonable fertilization can even exacerbate farmland degradation. According to statistics, the proportion of medium and low yield fields in China has reached 65%. Fundamentally, without healthy soil, sustainable food security is impossible. Therefore, it has become inevitable to seek alternative products beyond fertilizers.
The extensive use of fertilizers has also led to the exclusion of organic fertilizers, causing soil organic matter levels to reach the warning line. Compared with organic fertilizers, chemical fertilizers are easier to use and have faster effects. However, due to the shortage of rural labor, the amount of organic fertilizers used continues to shrink. According to a report by Professor Li Ji from China Agricultural University, currently, 26% of cultivated land in China has soil organic matter less than 1%, and 44.8% of cultivated land has soil organic carbon less than 1%. In Europe, when soil organic carbon is less than 2%, measures should be considered to stabilize or increase carbon levels.
Organic matter represents soil fertility and is positively correlated with grain yield. Due to insufficient input of organic fertilizers and a decrease in organic matter, another new problem arises, which is the diminishing return effect of chemical fertilizers. Data shows that in 1975, one kilogram of fertilizer could produce 25 grains, but by 2008, this number had decreased to 8-9 kilograms. The same goes for oilseeds and cotton, with a decrease of about 50% in the output of one kilogram of fertilizer.
In other words, in just 30 years, the return effect of fertilizers on food production has decreased by as much as half compared to before.
Beyond agricultural cultivation, the severe surplus pressure of the fertilizer industry itself also requires this industry to seek new paths for breakthrough. According to relevant experts, the scientific use of organic fertilizers can improve soil fertility, enhance the environment, and ensure the quality and safety of agricultural products. Moreover, from the perspective of fertilizers themselves, only traditional fertilizers are surplus, and there is no surplus of products that truly meet the needs of farmers, including bio organic fertilizers, organic-inorganic compound fertilizers, etc.

Is the organic fertilizer industry ready? The situation in the fertilizer industry and agriculture is driving the organic fertilizer industry back to the forefront after 30 years of decline and downturn. From zero growth in fertilizer to the implementation of the Ten Measures for Soil Protection, and encouraged by the policy of levying value-added tax on fertilizers while still exempting organic fertilizers, organic fertilizers seem to have ushered in rare good weather.
In fact, the organic fertilizer industry is not small in terms of quantity. According to data, there are currently 2283 organic fertilizer enterprises in China, with 9.47 million tons of commercial organic fertilizers, including 3.18 million tons of refined organic fertilizers, 1.51 million tons of bio organic fertilizers, and 4.22 million tons of organic-inorganic compound fertilizers. Behind this dry number, it actually reflects the current situation of the organic fertilizer industry being small and scattered. The scale of enterprises is generally small, and there are few enterprises that can grow as big as large chemical fertilizers.
Due to the backwardness of the organic fertilizer industry, a large amount of Organic Waste resources have not been fully utilized. These valuable fertilizers are not only a waste of resources, but also cause environmental pollution. It is estimated that China generates approximately 4 billion tons of organic solid waste annually, including 200 million tons of urban household waste, over 400 million tons of rural household waste, and 35 million tons of domestic sludge.
Individually speaking, among the main organic waste gases, the efficient treatment rate of livestock and poultry manure is only 30.1%, of which 16.5% is produced by factory composting of organic fertilizer; 2.6% of urban household waste is processed into organic fertilizer, with over 60% being landfilled; As of 2013, there were a total of 3500 sewage treatment plants in China, producing 34 million tons of sludge (80% moisture content) with an effective treatment rate of less than 20%. Composting treatment only produced 12% organic fertilizer.
There is also the most headache inducing straw recycling in agricultural production today. According to a report by Gao Xiangzhao, the chief expert of the National Agricultural Technology Extension Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the effective utilization rate of straw is only 52.7%. The total amount of straw resources in China is 550 million tons, with a total nutrient content of 16.332 million tons, which is equivalent to two fifths of China's fertilizer consumption. The nitrogen, P2O5, and K2O contained in it are 4.939 million tons, 1.567 million tons, and 9.825 million tons, respectively, accounting for 20.2%, 12.8%, and 286.5% of China's fertilizer input during the same period.
The backwardness of the organic fertilizer industry is both a weakness and a potential. One important reason is that organic waste, which is used as raw material for organic fertilizers, has a wide range of sources in China. This is the material basis for the rise of the organic fertilizer industry in the coming decades, and the rest depends on the support of technology, funding, and policies.

The integration of organic and inorganic fertilizers is a global trend. Throughout developed agricultural countries around the world, significantly increasing the proportion of organic fertilizer use is a common phenomenon, with the vast majority exceeding half of this watershed.
According to Li Ji's introduction, organic fertilizers play a crucial role in the fertilizer structure of European and American countries. In the United States, organic fertilizers account for 46%; The UK accounts for 57%; Germany accounts for 60%; France accounts for 37%; Australia accounts for 55%; Canada accounts for 60%; South Korea accounts for 48%; Japan has even reached a very high 76%.
Li Ji further inferred that if organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer each account for half of China's fertilizers, it means that the physical quantity of organic fertilizer needs to reach 600 million tons, with a production value of 600 yuan per ton, and the annual output value of the entire industry will reach 360 billion yuan. This will undoubtedly become a new development space for the fertilizer industry in the future.
In fact, there is a consensus at the decision-making level to further increase the proportion of organic fertilizers. Zhang Taolin, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated at last year's International Composting Conference that only by promoting the combination of organic and inorganic nutrients can we ensure the stable improvement of food and agricultural production capacity, and safeguard China's food security.
It can be imagined that for a considerable period of time in the future, organic fertilizers and chemical fertilizers will work together to ensure food security, and neither will be indispensable. Gao Xiangzhao said that research has shown that fertilizers contribute 57.8% of soil fertility, and fertilizers themselves do not directly cause farmland acidification. Farmland acidification or degradation is caused by the destruction of soil after a significant increase in crop yields, as well as the unscientific use of fertilizers. The reason why fertilizers are frequently criticized is that fertilizers do not have better measures to improve soil. Therefore, introducing organic fertilizers and making necessary balance adjustments to the current fertilizer structure is an inevitable move.
Zero growth requires reducing chemical fertilizers, but relying solely on organic fertilizers is not realistic. The future goal is to establish a new pattern of integrated development of organic and inorganic fertilizers.

The resurgence of organic fertilizers in a new round of fertilizer innovation and wealth creation, combined with large-scale chemical fertilizers, provides a foundation for fertilizer product innovation. He said that in the future, fertilizers will be promoted towards compounding, functionalization, and low carbonization, all of which are related to organic fertilizers. One of the meanings of compounding is to achieve a combination of organic and inorganic materials; Functionalization requires fertilizers to not only provide necessary nutrients, but also improve soil, promote roots, resist lodging, strengthen seedlings, weed control, preserve flowers and fruits; Low carbonization means reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Among them, organic fertilizers have great potential.
In a sense, the counter trend expansion of organic fertilizers will fundamentally change the structure of the fertilizer industry and is expected to trigger a new wave of product innovation. For the fertilizer industry, this is also an opportunity for a new round of wealth creation. There is a set of data that shows that the market price of ordinary organic fertilizer is only 600-900 yuan per ton, while bio organic fertilizer can be sold for 1200-1600 yuan; The price of bio organic-inorganic compound fertilizer can climb up to 3500-4000 yuan.
Of course, for China's organic fertilizer industry, there are still many problems that need to be solved in the face of the upcoming trend, including technical, standard, and regulatory aspects.
Overall, the quality of organic fertilizer products is uneven, the sources of raw materials are complex, and there is insufficient supervision; The enterprise's process equipment is rudimentary, and the proportion of industrial production is low; The product standard is single and lacks guidance.
Of particular concern is the safety issue of organic fertilizers, which have more and more complex problems compared to chemical fertilizers. For example, the pollution caused by livestock and poultry manure breeding, as well as the excessive levels of heavy metals and antibiotics, are extremely prominent. It is understood that the antibiotics mainly used for disease control in poultry and livestock farming are tylosin, tetracyclines, sulfonamide, and bacitracin. To address the issue of excessive antibiotics, on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of upstream animal husbandry, and on the other hand, downstream fertilizer enterprises must strictly follow production regulations and eliminate antibiotics when producing organic fertilizers.
In terms of heavy metals, China has only imposed limits on five types of heavy metals (Cd, Hg, Pb, Cr, As), while there are no corresponding standards for Zn, Cu, and Ni. Scholars conducted a random sample survey on the heavy metal content in organic fertilizers. According to China's strictest limit standards for heavy metals in organic fertilizers, there were 4 samples with Cd exceeding the limit, with a exceedance rate of 3.39%; There are 5 samples with Cr exceeding the standard, with a rate of 4.24%; There are 16 samples that exceed the standard, with a exceedance rate of 13.56%; There is one sample with Pb exceeding the standard, and the exceeding rate is 0.85%.
Farmland is not a garbage dump, and it is strictly prohibited for sludge and garbage to enter farmland without restrictions, let alone mixing with other fertilizers and losing supervision. Undoubtedly, with the implementation of various policies and the promotion of the fertilizer industry itself, the growth of organic fertilizers and their integration with the fertilizer industry will be the trend. Therefore, the management of this industry has also been put on the agenda.
Just recently, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine and the National Standardization Management Committee approved the release of three standards related to organic fertilizers. The new policy focuses on limiting the content of harmful substances in organic fertilizers, which actually means that the threshold for the organic fertilizer industry is increasing. Obviously, this is the first step that an industry must take towards its prosperity.